Business Analyst Community & Resources | Modern Analyst

Planning for Uncertainty

Marc Thibault — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 01:21:00 GMT

The probability that a project will succeed is different for different cost and time targets. There isn't a single right answer to "How long will it take?" or "How much will it cost?" There are a whole bunch of answers, each with its own probability of being right.

The conventional techniques for planning projects only give us one answer—and it's wrong; it's invariably optimistic. Optimism is a good thing as an attitude, but we don't want it in our estimates.

Worse, it usurps management authority to decide how much risk to accept in the target. Impossible goals and missed targets are bad for morale; poor morale leads to lower productivity and trouble retaining good staff. With better information, we can choose more realistic targets and hit them more often.

Effective planning and estimating tools should give us an accurate picture of the relationship between targets and the probabilities of meeting those targets. This is information we can use; if we know what shape the odds are, we can take action to improve the odds or hedge them. We can identify and address problems sooner.

Generally accepted techniques for project planning and estimating don't give us the information we need to do that. Calibrated estimators, good models, probability management and Monte Carlo simulation do.

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Marc Thibault — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 01:56:00 GMT

I may be overreaching but I include risk analysis as a proper subject of systems analysis. I've done enough TRAs to justify that position—at least to myself. So here's a risk analysis topic.

Toying with the idea of getting some certification I took a look at the CISSP and ISC Common Body of Knowledge. One thing I found odd enough to exchange a few emails with ITSec gurus. They assured me that this was the state of the discipline. The offense lay in a particular statement, repeated in various documents:

Purely quantitative risk analysis is not possible because the method is attempting to quantify qualitative items.

That, in the words of Dr. Pauli, is not even wrong; "Nothing that matters is so intangible that it can't be measured," is almost a tautology.

If it matters, it has an effect. Observing that effect is measuring it. Drawing a distinction between its presence or absence is measuring it. Estimating a range of values or probability distribution for it is measuring it.

This isn't unimportant. No one can do a cost/benefit analysis that tells them how much they should spend mitigating a "medium-high risk". The effect is that a lot of people are overspending on security based on a "let's scare the pants off them" qualitative risk assessment.

Bottom line: one of an analyst's skills should be measuring the putatively immeasurable.

Any challenges?

SAP OnDemand BI

Marc Thibault — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 15:26:00 GMT

SAP has announced a SaaS BI service that looks ideal for SMBs. It seems to have all the tricks you'd expect, so it's worth learning about.

Problem: SAP is being cute about their pricing and I don't want to waste a lot of time on this if it turns out to be another overpriced SAP product.

Has anyone got any idea what SAP intends to charge for this thing?